Moved

I've moved this site back to the old site, http://www.thecluelessqtrader.com/ , at least on a possibly temporary basis.

Weekly Russell 1000 Trade Ideas

The software is surprisingly bullish on the daily charts, the designer must have been one of those bullishly inclined individuals, or a slimey bottom fisher, anyway, it came up with about 5 new buy signals for every four new short signals, which kind of fit's into what I'm saying on my main site, The Clueless Q Trader, I expect a bounce back up to the January highs, which should now become resistance after being washed out last week, that would provide a new shorting opportunity for the next leg down, so my main thesis doesn't really fit into being bullish on the markets at this point.

Anyway, I have AA on the chart, as a disclaimer I'm already in this stock, as it's one of my day trading option things I use, it flushed with the market, which of course it's a market stock in that it usually moves with them, but rather than gap down again friday like the indexes did, it actually bounced and then held that support line that goes back to last October. I'd use friday's low as the stop rather than the line, maybe even thursday's low, the target would be the underside of the last low shelf, which is about $13.60, of course if the market decides the drop was all bull shit then it's going to go up with them, which would result in a back test of the trend line around $14.

Surprisingly, to me at least, I wasn't that wild about the shorts the software spit out, as we are a little, aaaaahhhhh, extended, but if I had to pick one it would be PRGO. The "fat tail" we had on thursday took it right down to the bottom of that gap, almost to the gnat's ass, this is a miracle of course because we all know there's no manipulation in the markets, hahahahahahaha, wad ever, anyway, that's the obvious first target, about $54, with the over all target being the gap fill around $51. The entry might be a little trickey, if we get the bounce and it gaps up I will wait to see how it reacts if it can get back to $60, which might provide whole number resistance, BUT, I didn't draw it on the chart, but there's three little bottoming tails that sit right on $58, so it may struggle to get back over that area. Now, it may gap down, in which case I will wait for a gap fill to see how it reacts, regardless of what it is, all the action is contained within that last candle, which is pretty wide, so I'm going to stop out if it gets above fridays open, $59.28.

The rest of the list is below.

On Da Udder hand, the weekly signals are still extremely bearish, with about 9 new short ideas for every buy signal. I have to laugh a little here, this scan I have also includes some of the main ETF's, and I didn't really like any of the other charts on the buy signals, so I put SDS on there, I think it looks pretty damn good, your R/R is very clear as I wouldn't want it under the recent lows, and the sky is the limit as to how far this thing could go, besides, even if you basically maintain a balanced portfolio you should probably take a little protection just in case. Anyway, it's some thing to "buy" if you can't short stocks.

Again, I'm not real wild about the short side right at this moment, that could change in a couple of days, so for now it's kind of a split decision on the one I have on the weekly short chart, CLI, it looks almost exactly the same as the daily chart of PRGO at the top. It broke that main trend line last week to trigger a trend change, but it has very clear support at the whole number $30 which also happens to be the area where it found support, but that's almost $2.75 from where it closed friday so there's some gains to be made if it gets to that point, which I think it probably will. The key is under that $30 area, if the market dumps this thing will almost have a lock on the gap fill down to that purple line at $22, as it has an Air Pocket, or VOID, waiting for it in that green circle. On the stop I'm not going to mess around with this thing, over last weeks high and I'm gone, $34.41, I mean, if you reduce position size you could use the high above $38, but why wait around for that, regardless, the main interest down the road will be the VOID area.

The rest of the lists are below.

On the trade management side it was up to your individual tastes, woooooo weeeeee, if you took GOOG out of the chute you picked up 7 points in the first 30 minutes, it pulled back and then went higher for another couple of points, I mean, at the VERY LEAST, you should have taken half off with your stop at break even, if you did, congratualtions, it was a real whinnnner! FAST had a very slight gap, then filled it right away, it never came close to hitting the $54 stop and rolled over after the first half hour, it dropped and then tried to rally into noon ET but it could not get over the open and rolled over, and just blasted lower with the major market dump. The target was $48.50, which it came up about 50 cents short of, but I don't know about you, but when some body dumps a gift like that in my lap I don't wait around, I was gone from it thursday. If your still in it I don't like it any more, do what you want, you would naturally be on trailing stops. Congratulations to any one that held on to the TMK short.

Mid Week Trade Ideas for Russell 1000

I have GOOG on the chart as the long idea, but you could just as well pick any number of the other ones on the list as they all look the same, it's a bullish peircing candle after some down drafting action, pretty dangerous stuff, but your risk is very clear, under today's low would be the stop. Personally, I'm not taking any thing until we get over this week, other than Intraday trades, we get the retail numbers for April tomorrow and then follow that with the payroll report on friday, definitely big market movers that can take us either way. Target area on GOOG would be that last congestion area at about $528

On the short side I have FAST, it broke under that topping pattern with the rest of the market and is under it's rising MA which is trying to turn over, if this thing get's going it has a lock on that lower trend line around $48.50, stop for me is over that MA above $54.

The rest of the list is at the bottom.

On the trade management side the only one left over from last week stopped out on trailings today, SFG, nice little gain in it. I didn't have any long ideas, other than that, just ideas, TAP gapped down and CELG tried to suck you in before a big gap on tuesday, the markets pretty much suck right now. HD was a woulda coulda mighta, I stopped for a 60 cent loss on the first day, it ended up dropping a little but is real choppy, it stays on my list of stocks NOT TO TRADE! TMK did pretty good, I got a one point gap down on tuesday then another 60 cents this morning,  I got hit for a stop on trailings on the second half, but this thing has the BIGGEST area of gains on the down side if it can get under $52, it has an Air Pocket or void back down to about the $47 "area", I intend to keep my eye on it.

Weekly Swing Trade Ideas for Russell 1000 5/3/10

The software is pretty bearish on the daily charts of the Russell 1000, spitting out just about four new short signals for every new buy signal. Even worse to me is that the new buy signals it gave are just about the worse looking bunch of "buy" setups I've ever seen the software do!!!!! I put TAP on the chart as an example, a lot of the other ones look pretty much the same, what this is, is a possible failed double top with a BOF bar to boot, BOF being a break out failure bar, where the equity makes a new rally high and then fails to hold that new high, closing lower with a red bar in this case. I mean, yea yea yea, don't get me wrong, I'm sure TAP can move up if the god's determine it to be so, but geeze, what an ugly set up to start with. If you have to go Long some thing, you'd probably be better off with DUK which I talked about last night. I'll look through my Telechart scans and see if I can't find some thing to post Sunday night or some thing, but my personal opinion is that the "markets" are at a juncture here and could be headed lower, so longs could be dangerous.

On Da Udder hand (my Uncle Ben impersonation), there's a lot of decent looking short setups. I have TMK on the chart, but you can look through the whole list your self for some thing you might like better, but there's a lot of decent R/R in the TMK short, if I can get an open monday near the close of friday I could start a little short position, with a stop above the highs of the last two days, but the real position won't come until we break the low of wednesday, once we get under that we get into an Air Pocket, or VOID, that could open up a rush to get out of Dodge, with the target being at about that $45 level, that gives me a stop of about $1.50 with a target of about 8 points, not a bad R/R.
The rest of the list is below.

The software is even MORE bearish on the weekly charts, with about 5.5 new short signals for every .5 buy setup. I have CELG on the chart, but it's more of a courtesy to the bulls as much as any thing else, I'm not that wild about it, but it's kind of a special situation newsey type thing, it has kind of an interesting candle as it opened lower on the week, took out the lower trend line (IE, scared the shit out of Da Bulls), and clawed back managing to close higher on the week with a dinky little increase in volume. If I take it, it will be with a greatly reduced position size, the obvious target is the previous high around $66, the stop on a WEEKLY time frame would have to be under the low of last week, which is about a 4 point stop, or a 1 to 1 R/R, YUCKO, for me personally my stop will be under the low of the gap up bar it made on thursday, just under $61, or about 1 point, so you get about a 4 to 1 ratio with that, which is not to bad.

I have HD on the chart for the short list, but there's about a hundred of them you could short on the list at the bottom. This is another BOF candle, plus a bearish piercing candle and almost a bearish engulfing candle, wad ever, the thing is back to where it was before the housing "crisis" started, which means the bulls are saying the housing crisis is over, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, HAH!!!!! Good luck with that one, both my kids are about 50% under water on the houses they brought in PrunePickerVille and Reno, and that's just about a year ago, I can't imagine how much under water people are that brought in 07', anyway, this is another one that I'm taking a stop on the daily chart rather than the weekly, I definitely would not want it if it gets over the high of the last two days, above $36, which is only about a 75 cent stop, there's different targets for this thing, the first is a shelf around $32, it "could" find some support from it's prior sponsor's in that area, but if it gets through that it has a virtual lock on $30, and more likely it could make it to the prior pivot around $28, so I could start with a 3 to 1 R/R, which is decent, which may work into about 7 to 1, which is great. You could reduce position sizing and take the weekly stop, over that high above $37, put your stop in and forget about for a few weeks, wad ever, Ya gotta do wad ya gotta do.  

Weekly Russell 1000 Money Flows

DUK showed up with the biggest money flows this past week in the Russell 1000, and the pattern is a little interesting, it's double bottomed and "could" be making the famous "Big W" formation, the traditional take on these is over the middle of the "W", which is what it did on Friday. The problem I see with this is that it doesn't look like there's to much upside potential, although I have seen this thing get in the 20's.

HAR is one of the leading loser's in the money flows, it's had just a huge dump in both the MS and TSV indicators. It's obviously over sold and probably due for a bounce, which is what I'd like to see, I'd like to see it bounce back up for a couple of days to that $42.50 area, and then roll over in an "Avalanache" formation, this whole area is a Clear Air Pocket, or VOID, back down to that gap fill in early February at $35.50, or there abouts.